An accurate estimate of the ultimate production of oil, gas, and coal would be helpful for the ongoing policy discussion on alternatives to fossil fuels and climate change. By ultimate production, we mean total production, past and future. It takes a long time to develop energy infrastructure, and this means it matters whether we have burned 20% of our oil, gas, and coal, or 40%. In modeling climate change, the carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels is the most important factor. The time frame for the climate response is much longer than the time frame for burning fossil fuels, and this means that the total amount burned is more important than the burn rate. Oil, gas, and coal ultimates are traditionally estimated by government geological surveys from measurements of oil and gas reservoirs and coal seams, together with an allowance for future discoveries of oil and gas. We will see that where these estimates can be tested, they tend to be too high, and that more accurate estimates can be made by curve fits to the production history.
Power-Point Slides (4MB, updated February 2010)
Excel Workbook (6MB, zip file, updated January 2010)
Video from the Watson Lecture at Caltech, October 2007 (1 hour, for a more general audience)
Video from a Caltech lecture, January 2010 (40 min., for a more technical audience)
Abstract for invited presentation at the meeting of the American Geophysical Union, December 2008
